Methodology for Chart Pattern Performance Analysis
This project aims to help traders better understand the performance of commonly occurring chart patterns in the volatile cryptocurrency markets. This may be achieved, in part, by examining frequencies of upward and downward breaks; prevalence of continuations and reversals for each pattern; and averaging the % gain or decline following a particular chart pattern’s breakout or breakdown. The measurements are designed to help traders anticipate average price action movements between a breakout or breakdown and the next consolidation period or trend reversal of relative size to the examined pattern. Please read the methodology and FAQ carefully to best understand how to interpret the charts and statistics!
Happy Trading!
Time Frames
All charts are one-day time frames.
Price Action %
Price action % movement is based on the next trend reversal or identifiable major consolidation relative to the examined pattern’s size.
Considerations may include the examined pattern’s successive pattern/consolidation duration and size, the initial run-up of the examined pattern (i.e. pole length), and trend break following the initial pattern.
Additionally, if a following period of consolidation is not relatively similar in size to the original pattern, two or more consecutive periods equal to the original pattern duration/size may be counted.
Dashes
Dashes (default blue but green or red on major reversal patterns) represent the close point of the previous trade for the calculation. Some price levels have two dashes if two patterns close at that point (relative to their size).
Breakouts
Breakouts and breakdowns are at trend break - not confirmation.
Color Coding
Continuation pattern trend lines and dashes are blue, while major reversal pattern lines are green or red depending on bottoms or tops, respectively. Some larger patterns may be given a red/green dash or trend line for clarity.
“C” and “R” Distinctions
Each continuation biased pattern is marked with either C (continuation) or R (reversal).
These designate whether the breakout or breakdown is in direct continuation or reversal from the immediate trend behind it (relative to the examined pattern). It does not mean sustained reversal or continuation.
For example, if a flag or pennant is examined, the direction in which the pole stems from.
Trend Lines
Pattern trend lines are created by connecting wicks and bodies, whichever best averages the price action. However, wicks are given first preference.
Gain & loss %
The % movement of price action is rounded to the nearest .5%
Gains are provided under three tiers: 1) unfiltered, 2) outliers over 400% filtered, and 3) gainers over 100% are filtered.
Triangle Duration
Triangles require pattern formation of 21 days or greater (including the day of breakout). Wedge and triangular shapes under 21 days are qualified as pennants.
Falling and Rising Wedges
Whether rising and falling wedges are marked as R or C depends on the immediate preceding trend relative to the size of the wedge. Falling wedges by their very nature are in a downtrend and when breaking up, they reverse their own trend. However, for the C and R designation, I look to the relative trend intact before the shape began. Thus, even if a falling wedge breaks up, it may be a continuation – despite breaking its own long-lasting downtrend.
Triangle, Wedge, and Pennant Trend Lines
Triangles require 5+ touches on support and resistance lines. Pennants can be formed by fewer with tight consolidation.
Reversal Necklines
Reversals like double tops/bottoms are preferably played with slanted necklines rather than horizontal necklines depending on chart disposition (obvious diagonal necklines will supersede horizontal ones played at the valley low). As discussed further in the handbook, this is a more aggressive strategy than creating necklines solely from valley lows.
Double tops and bottoms may also include those that are uneven.
Flags
Flags include all square, parallelogram, and rectangular patterns (can be sideways, downward, or upward) over any duration. Flags require 4+ touches on support and resistance lines.
USD Pairs
For USD traded pairs, USD calculated by Tradingview is used over USD or USDT if it allows greater chart history or clearer interpretation.
Broadening Wedges
Broadening wedges are not distinguished beyond Ascending (A.). Descending (D), or Symmetrical (Symm.).
Pattern Documentation and Exclusions
Not every single identifiable pattern on every chart is documented but the clearest and largest generally are.
Some stable coins and cryptos with insufficient chart history are excluded. For example, FLEXA (insufficient data), HIVE (insufficient data), USDT, PAX, USDC, TUSD, USCD, HYN (no exchange data), and DAI.